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Collaborative Data Collection in Political Science: a New Data Infrastructure on Parties, Elections and Governments

DÖRING, Holger
Fonte: Instituto Universitário Europeu Publicador: Instituto Universitário Europeu
Tipo: Trabalho em Andamento Formato: application/pdf; digital
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Information on political institutions, data on parties, elections, and governments, has yet to be provided in a format which makes it easily accessible for empirical research. Contemporary data on political institutions is scattered, limited to some countries or time periods only and difficult to combine, so that quantitative studies of political institutions have no systematic data infrastructure available which is equivalent to survey research or OECD data. As a consequence, work on political institutions rests on very heterogeneous information sources and the quality of data does not match standards of replication for empirical research. Political scientists are in need of a modern replacement for data handbooks and recent technological innovations have broadened the opportunities to develop such an infrastructure within the political science community. I discuss existing approaches towards collaborative data collection in political science and highlight contemporary shortcomings. In the paper, I propose a novel approach towards data collection in comparative research and present a new data infrastructure on parties, elections and governments, the Parliament and Government Composition Database (ParlGov). The data infrastructure combines a database...

Taking Evolution Seriously in Political Science

LEWIS, Orion; STEINMO, Sven
Fonte: Springer Publicador: Springer
Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica
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In this essay, we explore the epistemological and ontological assumptions that have been made to make political science scientific. We show how political science has generally adopted an ontologically reductionist philosophy of science derived from Newtonian physics and mechanics. This mechanical framework has encountered problems and constraints on its explanatory power, because an emphasis on equilibrium analysis is ill-suited for the study of political change. We outline the primary differences between an evolutionary ontology of social science and the physics-based philosophy commonly employed. Finally, we show how evolutionary thinking adds insight into the study of political phenomena and research questions that are of central importance to the field, such as preference formation.

Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war

Waters, Lonn Augustine
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 85 leaves; 5006999 bytes; 5010499 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
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Operational surprise attacks are large-scale, theater-level intrawar attacks, which result from a country misestimating the capabilities and intentions of its enemies. This thesis analyzes how these massive surprise attacks occur during war when countries should be especially wary of their enemies and vigilant for any evidence of attack. Three hypotheses may explain the frequency and success of operational surprise attacks including operational secrecy, strategic deception, and intelligence failure. Using the Battle of the Bulge in World War II and the Chinese counteroffensive in the Korean War as case studies, this analysis illustrates these three elements and evaluates their relative causal weight in these attacks. This study concludes that each hypothesis is a contributing element to the surprise attack, but that a failure of intelligence is the critical factor. Moreover, this failure stems from a "victory disease" - a belief held by military leaders and their intelligence staff when victory appears near that one's enemy is too weak or has allowed the opportunity to mount a successful counterattack pass.; (cont.) Thus, precisely when one's enemy becomes most desperate on the battlefield countries run a greater risk of surprise attack by failing to accurately estimate an enemy's strategic intentions and military capabilities.; by Lonn Augustine Waters.; Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology...

National security panics : overestimating threats to national security

Cramer, Jane Kellett, 1964-
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 427 p.
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Three times in this century the US public has panicked with fear because of exaggerations of external threats to the nation. These panics peaked in 1950,1960, and 1980. Why did the U.S. markedly exaggerate the Soviet threat at these times? These periods of widespread public fear were "defining moments" when the US created confrontational and militarized containment policies. These panics ratcheted up the arms race tremendously between the US and the Soviet Union, and arguably these panics led to unnecessary confrontations and crises. In this study I test leading explanations of these cases--eight hypotheses drawn from three different perspectives. The Rational Perspective argues insufficient information and uncertainty about present and future capabilities and intentions causes overestimations. The Psychological Perspective argues cognitive errors could cause these overestimations (attribution theory and schema theory/analogical reasoning, tested here). The Domestic Politics Perspective argues oversell, logrolling, electoral politics and/or militarism causes public overestimations. Domestic Politics best explains the national misperceptions examined. In each case, the sources of the specific misperceptions examined were clearly rooted in domestic politics (1950: oversell and militarism; 1960 and 1980: electoral politics and militarism.) Uncertainty about the threat was found to be a significant contributing factor in 1950 (but not the source/elites did not unintentionally overestimate when the misperceptions first formed).; (cont.) Uncertainty was found to be a significant "permissive condition" for the misperceptions of 1960-but uncertainty was highest just after Sputnik in 1957...

Pathogens as weapons : the international security implications of biological warfare; International security implications of biological warfare

Koblentz, Gregory D
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 222 p.; 22754971 bytes; 22786491 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
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This dissertation assesses the international security implications of biological weapons and the strategic consequences of their proliferation. It examines the impact of biological weapons on four key areas of concern for international security: proliferation, deterrence, civil-military relations, and threat assessment. The dissertation draws upon a range of theories from the field of security studies and a wealth of newly available information regarding the biological weapons programs of Iraq, the former Soviet Union, the United States, United Kingdom, and South Africa. My analysis yields four major findings. First, it is extremely difficult to prevent the spread of biological warfare capabilities to actors that want them and these actors tend to be motivated by a desire to challenge the status quo. Contrary to conventional wisdom, biological weapons have utility across the spectrum of conflict and are well suited to supporting asymmetric strategies against stronger opponents. Second, biological weapons do not confer the deterrent benefits associated with nuclear weapons and will undermine reliance on deterrence as a security strategy. Biological weapons are not suitable as strategic deterrents due to the uncertainty regarding their effects...

Sorry states : apologies in international politics

Lind, Jennifer M., 1969-
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 436 p.; 29226375 bytes; 29286435 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
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Are apologies and other acts of contrition necessary to reduce threat and build trust between former adversaries? This has become an accepted conventional wisdom, despite the fact that the effects of contrition have not yet been tested. This dissertation outlines and tests an "apology theory" of international politics, thus contributing to debates within international relations theory about the role of intentions in threat perception between states, as well as to policy debates about the role of contrition in peace building. The apology theory posits that a state's "policies of remembrance" affect perception of its intentions in the eyes of other states, and thus influence the degree to which others see it as threatening. According to the theory, apologies foster perception of benign intentions and thus reduce threat perception. I test the apology theory in two empirical case studies: South Korean threat perception of Japan and French threat perception of Germany, both since World War II. To determine whether my findings appear valid in other cases, I conduct three "mini-cases": Chinese and Australian perceptions of Japan, and British perceptions of Germany. The study has three principal findings. First, the Japan case shows that denial of past violence (unapologetic remembrance) is pernicious for bilateral relations; it fuels distrust and increases threat perception between states. Acknowledgement of past violence is vital for former adversaries to establish productive and friendly relations. Second...

Citizens of the Market: New Forms of International Migration and their Consequences for People, Parties and Political Systems

Paul, Ruxandra
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation
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How does high-mobility migration affect politics in the migrants' countries of origin? This dissertation examines the socio-political effects of intra-EU migrations using quantitative and qualitative data from Romania and Poland, two of the European Union's main migrant-sending countries. The project makes a triple contribution. First, it analyzes on multiple levels the impact of free movement, producing a complete picture of systemic political transformation. It examines shifts in migrants' worldviews, political attitudes and attachments (micro-level ethnography); changes in the electoral appeal of political parties in regions with relatively higher citizen mobility (meso-level quantitative analysis of Polish voivodships and Romanian judete); and the strategies migrant-sending countries use to cope with the challenges of free movement. Second, unlike sociological, economic and ethnographic studies of recent migratory flows, which treat the phenomenon's political dimension as a side effect, this project anchors the research agenda in mainstream political science by placing the state-citizen relationship at the core of the inquiry as a conceptual benchmark for understanding migration-related political evolutions. Third, by focusing on EU-associated free movement...

Measuring Political Preferences of the U.S. Voting Population

Nahm, Alison
Fonte: Harvard University Publicador: Harvard University
Tipo: Thesis or Dissertation; text Formato: application/pdf
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Political polarization is a common topic in the news and media, but not much has been done to understand the distribution of the preferences of the U.S. voting population. Political scientists have drawn different conclusions on the current state of political polarization within the U.S. voting population based on survey data and basic spatial voting models. In this work, I present a spatial voting model that analyzes voting data at a more fine-grained level in order to use Bayesian techniques to infer the underlying distribution of political preferences of the population. Further, I verify these results by comparing it to alternative public opinion measurements and measuring the accuracy in completing prediction tasks. This work adds a new perspective to the current discussion within the political science community of the recent trends of political polarization.

A gênese da ciência política Brasileira; The genesis of Brazilian political science

Keinert, Fábio Cardoso; Silva, Dimitri Pinheiro
Fonte: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas Publicador: Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Ciências Humanas
Tipo: info:eu-repo/semantics/article; info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion; ; ; ; ; ; Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/06/2010 Português
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O artigo analisa dimensões constitutivas da afirmação, a partir de fins dos anos de 1960, da ciência política no Brasil. Amparada pelo auxílio da Fundação Ford e impulsionada pela iniciativa de um grupo geracional, essa disciplina acadêmica tem sua legitimidade ancorada na reivindicação de uma cultura científica que, em alguns casos, lastrearia a intervenção técnica na transição democrática. Proclamando a ruptura com o padrão de trabalho vigente nas ciências sociais brasileiras, este grupo, entretanto, estabelece continuidades com a tradição nacional de pensamento político-social. A desqualificação de grupos acadêmicos rivais e a evocação do aporte simbólico de uma tradição são duas facetas de um mesmo processo de autonomização disciplinar.; The article analyzes the constitutive dimensions of the affirmation of political science in Brazil, which began in the late 60s. With the support of the Ford Foundation and driven by the initiative of a generational group, the legitimacy of this academic discipline is anchored in demands for a scientific culture that would, in some cases, buoy technical intervention during the democratic transition. Announcing their rupture from the prevailing standard of work in the Brazilian social sciences...

Book review: democracy: the best regime in existence?

Fisher, Mark
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 02/08/2012 Português
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How can democracy lead to such successful outcomes when its defining characteristic, elections, are so flawed? Danny Oppenheimer and Mike Edwards draw on cutting-edge research in psychology and political science to investigate the question and suggest an answer. The authors argue that democracy works because regular elections, no matter how flawed, produce a variety of unintuitive, positive consequences. Mark Fisher is unconvinced however, finding that the authors fall into the trap of judging democracy by American standards. Democracy Despite Itself: Why a System That Shouldn’t Work at All Works So Well. Danny Oppenheimer and Mike Edwards. MIT Press. February 2012.

Duverger’s Law is a dead parrot: outside the USA, first-past-the-post voting has no tendency at all to produce two party politics

Dunleavy, Patrick
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 18/06/2012 Português
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Political science has very few ‘laws’, perhaps explaining why the discipline has so stubbornly clung onto Maurice Duverger’s famous claim that countries using first-past-the-post voting systems will always have two party politics. It is no exaggeration to say that this proposition still underpins whole fields of research. Yet Patrick Dunleavy explains that modern theory and better evidence now show that the alleged ‘Law’ has lost all credibility.

Book review: The war prerogative: history, reform, and constitutional design by Rosara Joseph

Bannerman, Gordon
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 28/01/2014 Português
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"The War Prerogative: History, Reform, and Constitutional Design." Rosara Joseph. Oxford University Press. September 2013. --- In this book, Rosara Joseph studies the evolution of the war prerogative in England from 1600-2012. The author traces the historical theory and practice of the war prerogative and proposes reform of the constitutional arrangements for its exercise. Meticulously-researched and written in a lively and engaging style, the book will interest scholars in international and constitutional law, political science, and modern history, writes Gordon Bannerman.

Post-conflict traditional justice: a critical overview

Allen, Tim; Macdonald, Anna
Fonte: Justice and Security Research Programme, International Development Department, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Justice and Security Research Programme, International Development Department, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /02/2013 Português
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The authors examine the debates surrounding recent attempts to introduce local accountability mechanisms into structures of transitional justice in politically fragile and post-conflict situations. Issues discussed include the relevance of state capture, whether traditional justice is restorative, the discriminatory aspects of traditional justice and whether it is fully understood by outsiders. Tim Allen is Professor of Development Anthropology at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Anna Macdonald is a doctoral candidate in the Department of War Studies at King's College London.

Political theory: the state of the art

Kelly, Paul
Fonte: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Publicador: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
Tipo: Article; PeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /02/2006 Português
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For much of its history political science has been political theory. As political science begins to establish a stronger sense of identity, political theorists have become more concerned about the point of their activity. In reviewing current trends and future prospects for political theory the author examines the current state of the art, including the undue significance attached to gurus such as Michael Oakeshott and Isaiah Berlin, the quest for normalisation in a preoccupation with theories of justice and the irrelevancy of permanent critique. The author concludes with a suggestion that political theory needs a much greater critical engagement with political science

Statebuilding and gender in the Kurdistan region of Iraq: workshop report

Middle East Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Research Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Research
Tipo: Conference or Workshop Item; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /07/2014 Português
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This report features the proceedings from a workshop held at the University of Kurdistan-Hewlêr in Erbil on 27 May 2014 as part of the Academic Collaboration research project between LSE MEC and AUD. The workshop focused on the relationship between international actors in institutional reconstruction and gender relations in Kurdistan-Iraq since 2003.

Book review: The Oxford handbook of gender and politics

Miller, Emma
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 18/09/2013 Português
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"The Oxford Handbook of Gender and Politics." Georgina Waylen, Karen Celis, Johanna Kantola, and Laurel Weldon (eds.) Oxford University Press. April 2013. --- As a field of scholarship, gender and politics has exploded over the last fifty years and is now global, institutionalized, and ever expanding. The Oxford Handbook of Gender and Politics seeks to bring to political science an accessible and comprehensive overview of the key contributions of gender scholars to the study of politics and shows how these contributions produce a richer understanding of polities and societies. Emma Miller finds that an impressively broad range of subjects are covered.

Why the 2015 UK election spells the bitter end for the biggest ‘law’ in political science

Dunleavy, Patrick
Fonte: The London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: The London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 29/04/2015 Português
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The United Kingdom general election takes place next week, with current polling predicting no clear majority in the House of Commons for any party. One of the most well-known concepts in political science is Duverger’s Law, which states that two parties will dominate under ‘first past the post’ systems, as is the case in the U.S. This concept also held for the UK, until the recent rise of smaller parties and the decline of the traditionally largest parties, Labour and the Conservatives. Patrick Dunleavy examines the decline of two-party politics in Britain, and argues that it sounds the death knell for Duverger’s Law, with Britain now having a multi-party system akin to that which exists in other western European countries.

Justice, reconciliation and memorial politics in Cambodia

Manning, Peter
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /01/2014 Português
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This thesis examines conflicts and congruities between memories of past political violence, and the implications these have for attempts to enable ‘justice’ and ‘reconciliation’ in Cambodia. The project takes the establishment of the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) as a starting point that seeks to stabilise a narrow account of past political violence. The ECCC is important as a point of departure because it is the main institutional site through which Cambodia is confronting past political violence. Tasked with prosecuting crimes perpetrated by Khmer Rouge between 1975 and 1979, the ECCC promotes a restricted reading of political violence in Cambodia, attempting to silence some pasts whilst calling attention to others. At the same time, the work of the ECCC situates the past as a field of intervention that can yield particular ameliorative social and political outcomes: providing a sense of justice, establishing the truth of political violence in Cambodia, deterring the future perpetration of atrocity, and enabling reconciliation. Memory is integral to these ends as the key target of civic renewal. Based on eight months of fieldwork in 2008/9 conducted at multiple sites in Cambodia, the project critically reflects on the ECCC’s attempt to generate a unified and consensual account of political violence in Cambodia. Three key findings are evidenced. Firstly...

Long-wave economics and the changing fortunes of the political and social movements of the left and right.

Fraser, Duncan
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em //2001 Português
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A number of writers working in the fields of history and industrial relations have claimed a correlation between long-wave economics and the changing fortunes of political and social movements of the left and right. They have suggested both particular patterns of development and causations but often on the basis of piecemeal evidence, lacking a comprehensive theoretical and empirical basis. This thesis tests the validity of such a correlation through a comparative historical analysis of the domestic political histories of Britain, France, Germany and the USA over the four long-waves that have occurred in modern times; those of 1803-1848, 1848-1896, 1896-1948 and 1948-1998. It finds, that since industrialization, there has been a distinct and repeating pattern of political and social development that can be correlated with long-wave economics. Common ground is found with existing theoretical patterns, though also notable areas of difference, and this thesis provides a more comprehensive pattern of development. The thesis proceeds to explore possible causations for the pattern found. It does so by using existing political science theories explaining political change; those concerning voting behaviour, class struggle and party competition. It finds that aspects of these theories can be used to explain the pattern of development found. Above all...

Framing elite policy discourse: science and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants

Templeton, Jessica
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science Thesis
Tipo: Thesis; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /07/2011 Português
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Rising levels of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment have spurred governments around the world to engage in cooperative action on a global scale to control those chemicals that pose significant threats to human health and the environment. Political efforts to mitigate the risks posed by these chemicals are impeded by the technical complexity associated with POPs pollution, and are thus predicated on the scientific assessments of experts in fields such as chemistry and toxicology. Policymakers’ reliance on scientific expertise for guidance on risk assessment and management has reduced their control over policy and has given scientists authority to determine socially acceptable levels of risk, thus blurring the boundaries between science and politics. Conversely, the implications of science-based decision-making have increased the interest and involvement of political actors in a phase of evaluation that is often seen as objective, fact-based, and free of political interest. This thesis analyzes the ways in which various actors with scientific expertise – representatives of governments, industry, and environmental/public health NGOs – working under the auspices of the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants have used strategic issue framing tactics to promote predetermined policy agendas during the scientific review of chemicals proposed for regulation. This research breaks new ground by analyzing the ways elite decision-makers strategically frame issues in order to influence the policy preferences of other elites...