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## An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

Fonte: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Publicador: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

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We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.; Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP)[2008/00383-9]; Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico a Tecnologico (CNPq)[550981/2007]

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## A dinâmica de opinião dos debates públicos em redes sociais complexas; The opinion dynamics of the public debates on complex social networks

Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP

Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Formato: application/pdf

Publicado em 03/12/2012
Português

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#Complex networks#Complex systems#Dinâmica de opinião#Opinion dynamics#Redes complexas#Redes sociais#Simulação social#Sistemas complexos#Social networks#Social simulation

Neste trabalho são estudados os efeitos, causados por variações na topologia de rede, no comportamento de quatro modelos de dinâmica de opinião: o Modelo Votante, o Modelo Confiança Limitada, o Modelo da Regra da Maioria e o Modelo CODA. Primeiramente estes modelos são utilizados em simulações que usam uma série de diversas redes sociais complexas, geradas para apresentar diferentes combinações de valores de certas propriedades chave, como aglomeração, conectividade, assortatividade e distâncias internas. Em seguida, são realizados experimentos que mostram como a topologia influencia os resultados na modelagem de cenários de debates públicos, onde duas opiniões rivais, A e B, disputam sob condições desiguais o consenso de uma população simulada.; This work studies the effects caused by variations in network topology in the behavior of four different models of opinion dynamics: the Voter Model, Bounded Confidence Model, the Majority Rule Model and the CODA Model. First, these models are used in simulations over a number of different complex social networks, generated to show sereval combinations of key properties such as clustering, connectivity, assortativity and path distances. Then, we perform experiments that show how the topology influences the results in modeling scenarios of public debates...

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## Dinâmica de opinião de Krause-Hegselmann em redes complexas; Opinion dynamics of Krause-Hegselmann on complex networks

Fonte: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP
Publicador: Biblioteca Digitais de Teses e Dissertações da USP

Tipo: Dissertação de Mestrado
Formato: application/pdf

Publicado em 28/11/2012
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa

67.6348%

#Collective phenomena#Complex networks#Dinâmicas de opinião#Fenômenos coletivos#Krause-Hegselmann#Krause-Hegselmann#Opinion dynamics#Redes complexas

Fenômenos coletivos em redes sociais como a formação de linguagem ou cultura, crenças, emergência de consenso em relação a algum assunto, aquisição de conhecimento e aprendizagem, dentre outros, tem conduzido a um grande interesse no estudo de comportamentos cooperativos e fenômenos sociais, resultando numa grande variedade de dinâmicas de opinião. Nestes modelos, uma população de agentes interagentes carrega uma variável (ou um conjunto delas) numérica cujo valor representa uma opinião sobre um tópico, com interpretações distintas em cada contexto. Inspirados em conceitos de mecânica estatística e mecanismos sociais, estes estados evoluem governados por regras matemáticas que controlam a dinâmica de interação entre os agentes e a influência de fatores externos. Outro ingrediente importante na modelagem de sistemas reais é que a representação das interações entre agentes difere bastante de reticulados ou misturas homogêneas, sendo mais bem descritas por redes complexas. Neste trabalho, estudamos a dinâmica de opinião de Krause e Hegselmann. Neste modelo, agentes possuem opiniões que assumem valores contínuos e são atualizados de acordo com a vizinhança compatível, definida pelo princípio da confiança limitada. Após apresentar uma revisão da literatura...

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## Agent based models and opinion dynamics as Markov chains

Fonte: ISEG - Departamento de Economia
Publicador: ISEG - Departamento de Economia

Tipo: Outros

Publicado em //2012
Português

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This paper introduces a Markov chain approach that allows a rigorous analysis of agent based opinion dynamics as well as other related agent based models (ABM). By viewing the ABM dynamics as a micro description of the process, we show how the corresponding macro description is
obtained by a projection construction. Then, well known conditions for lumpability make it possible to establish the cases where the macro model is stillMarkov. In this case we obtain a complete picture of the dynamics including the transient stage, the most interesting phase in applications. For such
a purpose a crucial role is played by the type of probability distribution used to implement the stochastic part of the model which defines the updating rule and governs the dynamics. In addition, we show how restrictions in communication leading to the co–existence of different opinions follow
from the emergence of new absorbing states. We describe our analysis in detail with some specific models of opinion dynamics. Generalizations concerning different opinion representations as well as opinion models with other interaction mechanisms are also discussed. We find that our method may be an attractive alternative to mean–field approaches and that this approach provides new perspectives on the modeling of opinion exchange dynamics...

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## Multi-Level Opinion Dynamics under Bounded Confidence

Fonte: Public Library of Science
Publicador: Public Library of Science

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 19/09/2012
Português

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Opinion dynamics focuses on the opinion evolution in a social community. Recently, some models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence were proposed by Deffuant and Krause, et al. In the literature, agents were generally assumed to have a homogeneous confidence level. This paper proposes an extended model for a group of agents with heterogeneous confidence levels. First, a social differentiation theory is introduced and a social group is divided into opinion subgroups with distinct confidence levels. Second, a multi-level heterogeneous opinion formation model is formulated under the framework of bounded confidence. Finally, computer simulations are conducted to study the collective opinion evolution, focusing on three key factors: the fractions of heterogeneous agents, the initial opinions, and the group size. The simulation results demonstrate that the number of final opinions depends on the fraction of close-minded agents when the group size and the initial opinions are fixed; the final opinions converge more easily when the initial opinions are closer; and the number of final opinions can be approximately modeled by a linear increasing function of the group size and the increasing rate is the fraction of close-minded agents.

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## Influence of Opinion Dynamics on the Evolution of Games

Fonte: Public Library of Science
Publicador: Public Library of Science

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 15/11/2012
Português

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Under certain circumstances such as lack of information or bounded rationality, human players can take decisions on which strategy to choose in a game on the basis of simple opinions. These opinions can be modified after each round by observing own or others payoff results but can be also modified after interchanging impressions with other players. In this way, the update of the strategies can become a question that goes beyond simple evolutionary rules based on fitness and become a social issue. In this work, we explore this scenario by coupling a game with an opinion dynamics model. The opinion is represented by a continuous variable that corresponds to the certainty of the agents respect to which strategy is best. The opinions transform into actions by making the selection of an strategy a stochastic event with a probability regulated by the opinion. A certain regard for the previous round payoff is included but the main update rules of the opinion are given by a model inspired in social interchanges. We find that the fixed points of the dynamics of the coupled model are different from those of the evolutionary game or the opinion models alone. Furthermore, new features emerge such as the independence of the fraction of cooperators with respect to the topology of the social interaction network or the presence of a small fraction of extremist players.

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## Human opinion dynamics: An inspiration to solve complex optimization problems

Fonte: Nature Publishing Group
Publicador: Nature Publishing Group

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 21/10/2013
Português

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Human interactions give rise to the formation of different kinds of opinions in a society. The study of formations and dynamics of opinions has been one of the most important areas in social physics. The opinion dynamics and associated social structure leads to decision making or so called opinion consensus. Opinion formation is a process of collective intelligence evolving from the integrative tendencies of social influence with the disintegrative effects of individualisation, and therefore could be exploited for developing search strategies. Here, we demonstrate that human opinion dynamics can be utilised to solve complex mathematical optimization problems. The results have been compared with a standard algorithm inspired from bird flocking behaviour and the comparison proves the efficacy of the proposed approach in general. Our investigation may open new avenues towards understanding the collective decision making.

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## Communication regimes in opinion dynamics: Changing the number of communicating agents

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 24/08/2007
Português

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This article contributes in four ways to the research on time-discrete
continuous opinion dynamics with compromising agents. First, communication
regimes are introduced as an elementary concept of opinion dynamic models.
Second, we develop a model that covers two major models of continuous opinion
dynamics, i.e. the basic model of Deffuant and Weisbuch as well as the model of
Krause and Hegselmann. To combine these models, which handle different numbers
of communicating agents, we convert the convergence parameter of Deffuant and
Weisbuch into a parameter called self-support. Third, we present simulation
results that shed light on how the number of communicating agents but also how
the self-support affect opinion dynamics. The fourth contribution is a
theoretically driven criterion when to stop a simulation and how to extrapolate
to infinite many steps.; Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, In: Proceedings of the Second Conference of the
European Social Simulation Association (ESSA), September 16-19, Valladolid,
Spain, 2004 (ISBN 84-688-7964-9)

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## Opinion Dynamics and Price Formation: a Nonlinear Network Model

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 01/08/2014
Português

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Opinions and beliefs determine the evolution of social systems. This is of
particular interest in finance, as the increasing complexity of financial
systems is coupled with information overload. Opinion formation, therefore, is
not always the result of optimal information processing. On the contrary,
agents are boundedly rational and naturally tend to observe and imitate others
in order to gain further insights. Hence, a certain degree of interaction,
which can be envisioned as a network, occurs within the system. Opinions, the
interaction network and prices in financial markets are then heavily
intertwined and influence one another. We build on previous contributions on
adaptive systems, where agents have hetereogenous beliefs, and introduce a
dynamic confidence network that captures the interaction and shapes the opinion
patterns. The analytical framework we adopt for modeling the interaction is
rooted in the opinion dynamics problem. This will allow us to introduce a
nonlinear model where the confidence network, opinion dynamics and price
formation coevolve in time. A key aspect of the model is the classification of
agents according to their topological role in the network, therefore showing
that topology matters in determining how of opinions and prices will coevolve.
We illustrate the dynamics via simulations...

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## A Distance Measure for the Analysis of Polar Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 16/10/2015
Português

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#Computer Science - Social and Information Networks#Computer Science - Discrete Mathematics#Computer Science - Data Structures and Algorithms#Statistics - Machine Learning#G.2.2#H.2.8#I.5.3

Analysis of opinion dynamics in social networks plays an important role in
today's life. For applications such as predicting users' political preference,
it is particularly important to be able to analyze the dynamics of competing
opinions. While observing the evolution of polar opinions of a social network's
users over time, can we tell when the network "behaved" abnormally?
Furthermore, can we predict how the opinions of the users will change in the
future? Do opinions evolve according to existing network opinion dynamics
models? To answer such questions, it is not sufficient to study individual user
behavior, since opinions can spread far beyond users' egonets. We need a method
to analyze opinion dynamics of all network users simultaneously and capture the
effect of individuals' behavior on the global evolution pattern of the social
network.
In this work, we introduce Social Network Distance (SND) - a distance measure
that quantifies the "cost" of evolution of one snapshot of a social network
into another snapshot under various models of polar opinion propagation. SND
has a rich semantics of a transportation problem, yet, is computable in time
linear in the number of users, which makes SND applicable to the analysis of
large-scale online social networks. In our experiments with synthetic and
real-world Twitter data...

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## The role of inflexible minorities in the breaking of democratic opinion dynamics

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 02/03/2007
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa

47.60232%

We study the effect of inflexible agents on two state opinion dynamics. The
model operates via repeated local updates of random grouping of agents. While
floater agents do eventually flip their opinion to follow the local majority,
inflexible agents keep their opinion always unchanged. It is a quenched
individual opinion. In the bare model (no inflexibles), a separator at 50%
drives the dynamics towards either one of two pure attractors, each associated
with a full polarization along one of the opinions. The initial majority wins.
The existence of inflexibles for only one of the two opinions is found to shift
the separator at a lower value than 50% in favor of that side. Moreover it
creates an incompressible minority around the inflexibles, one of the pure
attractors becoming a mixed phase attractor. In addition above a threshold of
17% inflexibles make their side sure of winning whatever the initial conditions
are. The inflexible minority wins. An equal presence of inflexibles on both
sides restores the balanced dynamics with again a separator at 50% and now two
mixed phase attractors on each side. Nevertheless, beyond 25% the dynamics is
reversed with a unique attractor at a fifty-fifty stable equilibrium. But a
very small advantage in inflexibles results in a decisive lowering of the
separator at the advantage of the corresponding opinion. A few percent
advantage does guarantee to become majority with one single attractor. The
model is solved exhaustedly for groups of size 3.; Comment: 18 pages...

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## Opinion dynamics: inhomogeneous Boltzmann-type equations modelling opinion leadership and political segregation

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 27/05/2015
Português

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We propose and investigate different kinetic models for opinion formation,
when the opinion formation process depends on an additional independent
variable, e.g. a leadership or a spatial variable. More specifically, we
consider:(i) opinion dynamics under the effect of opinion leadership, where
each individual is characterised not only by its opinion, but also by another
independent variable which quantifies leadership qualities; (ii) opinion
dynamics modelling political segregation in the `The Big Sort', a phenomenon
that US citizens increasingly prefer to live in neighbourhoods with politically
like-minded individuals. Based on microscopic opinion consensus dynamics such
models lead to inhomogeneous Boltzmann-type equations for the opinion
distribution. We derive macroscopic Fokker-Planck-type equations in a
quasi-invariant opinion limit and present results of numerical experiments.; Comment: 20 pages

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## Impact of Preference and Equivocators on Opinion Dynamics with Evolutionary Game Framework

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 28/07/2015
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa

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#Computer Science - Computer Science and Game Theory#Computer Science - Social and Information Networks#Physics - Physics and Society

Opinion dynamics, aiming to understand the evolution of collective behavior
through various interaction mechanisms of opinions, represents one of the most
challenges in natural and social science. To elucidate this issue clearly,
binary opinion model becomes a useful framework, where agents can take an
independent opinion. Inspired by the realistic observations, here we propose
two basic interaction mechanisms of binary opinion model: one is the so-called
BSO model in which players benefit from holding the same opinion; the other is
called BDO model in which players benefit from taking different opinions. In
terms of these two basic models, the synthetical effect of opinion preference
and equivocators on the evolution of binary opinion is studied under the
framework of evolutionary game theory (EGT), where the replicator equation (RE)
is employed to mimick the evolution of opinions. By means of numerous
simulations, we show the theoretical equilibrium states of binary opinion
dynamics, and mathematically analyze the stability of each equilibrium state as
well.; Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures

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## Opinion dynamics with disagreement and modulated information

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 01/12/2012
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa

47.50483%

Opinion dynamics concerns social processes through which populations or
groups of individuals agree or disagree on specific issues. As such, modelling
opinion dynamics represents an important research area that has been
progressively acquiring relevance in many different domains. Existing
approaches have mostly represented opinions through discrete binary or
continuous variables by exploring a whole panoply of cases: e.g. independence,
noise, external effects, multiple issues. In most of these cases the crucial
ingredient is an attractive dynamics through which similar or similar enough
agents get closer. Only rarely the possibility of explicit disagreement has
been taken into account (i.e., the possibility for a repulsive interaction
among individuals' opinions), and mostly for discrete or 1-dimensional
opinions, through the introduction of additional model parameters. Here we
introduce a new model of opinion formation, which focuses on the interplay
between the possibility of explicit disagreement, modulated in a
self-consistent way by the existing opinions' overlaps between the interacting
individuals, and the effect of external information on the system. Opinions are
modelled as a vector of continuous variables related to multiple possible
choices for an issue. Information can be modulated to account for promoting
multiple possible choices. Numerical results show that extreme information
results in segregation and has a limited effect on the population...

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## Agent Based Models and Opinion Dynamics as Markov Chains

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa

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#Nonlinear Sciences - Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems#Physics - Physics and Society#37L60, 37N25, 05C69

This paper introduces a Markov chain approach that allows a rigorous analysis
of agent based opinion dynamics as well as other related agent based models
(ABM). By viewing the ABM dynamics as a micro description of the process, we
show how the corresponding macro description is obtained by a projection
construction. Then, well known conditions for lumpability make it possible to
establish the cases where the macro model is still Markov. In this case we
obtain a complete picture of the dynamics including the transient stage, the
most interesting phase in applications. For such a purpose a crucial role is
played by the type of probability distribution used to implement the stochastic
part of the model which defines the updating rule and governs the dynamics. In
addition, we show how restrictions in communication leading to the co-existence
of different opinions follow from the emergence of new absorbing states. We
describe our analysis in detail with some specific models of opinion dynamics.
Generalizations concerning different opinion representations as well as opinion
models with other interaction mechanisms are also discussed. We find that our
method may be an attractive alternative to mean-field approaches and that this
approach provides new perspectives on the modeling of opinion exchange
dynamics...

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## Opinion Dynamics with Decaying Confidence: Application to Community Detection in Graphs

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa

47.755117%

#Mathematics - Optimization and Control#Mathematics - Dynamical Systems#Physics - Physics and Society

We study a class of discrete-time multi-agent systems modelling opinion
dynamics with decaying confidence. We consider a network of agents where each
agent has an opinion. At each time step, the agents exchange their opinion with
their neighbors and update it by taking into account only the opinions that
differ from their own less than some confidence bound. This confidence bound is
decaying: an agent gives repetitively confidence only to its neighbors that
approach sufficiently fast its opinion. Essentially, the agents try to reach an
agreement with the constraint that it has to be approached no slower than a
prescribed convergence rate. Under that constraint, global consensus may not be
achieved and only local agreements may be reached. The agents reaching a local
agreement form communities inside the network. In this paper, we analyze this
opinion dynamics model: we show that communities correspond to asymptotically
connected component of the network and give an algebraic characterization of
communities in terms of eigenvalues of the matrix defining the collective
dynamics. Finally, we apply our opinion dynamics model to address the problem
of community detection in graphs. We propose a new formulation of the community
detection problem based on eigenvalues of normalized Laplacian matrix of graphs
and show that this problem can be solved using our opinion dynamics model. We
consider three examples of networks...

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## The noisy Hegselmann-Krause model for opinion dynamics

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Publicado em 11/09/2013
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa

47.62437%

In the model for continuous opinion dynamics introduced by Hegselmann and
Krause, each individual moves to the average opinion of all individuals within
an area of confidence. In this work we study the effects of noise in this
system. With certain probability, individuals are given the opportunity to
change spontaneously their opinion to another one selected randomly inside the
opinion space with different rules. If the random jump does not occur,
individuals interact through the Hegselmann-Krause's rule. We analyze two
cases, one where individuals can carry out opinion random jumps inside the
whole opinion space, and other where they are allowed to perform jumps just
inside a small interval centered around the current opinion. We found that
these opinion random jumps change the model behavior inducing interesting
phenomena. Using pattern formation techniques, we obtain approximate analytical
results for critical conditions of opinion cluster formation. Finally, we
compare the results of this work with the noisy version of the Deffuant et al.
model for continuous-opinion dynamics.

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## Scaling limits for continuous opinion dynamics systems

Fonte: Universidade Cornell
Publicador: Universidade Cornell

Tipo: Artigo de Revista Científica

Português

Relevância na Pesquisa

47.55734%

#Mathematics - Probability#Computer Science - Social and Information Networks#Mathematics - Analysis of PDEs#Mathematics - Dynamical Systems

Scaling limits are analyzed for stochastic continuous opinion dynamics
systems, also known as gossip models. In such models, agents update their
vector-valued opinion to a convex combination (possibly agent- and
opinion-dependent) of their current value and that of another observed agent.
It is shown that, in the limit of large agent population size, the empirical
opinion density concentrates, at an exponential probability rate, around the
solution of a probability-measure-valued ordinary differential equation
describing the system's mean-field dynamics. Properties of the associated
initial value problem are studied. The asymptotic behavior of the solution is
analyzed for bounded-confidence opinion dynamics, and in the presence of an
heterogeneous influential environment.; Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AAP739 the Annals of
Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

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## Noisy continuous-opinion dynamics

Fonte: Conselho Superior de Investigações Científicas
Publicador: Conselho Superior de Investigações Científicas

Tipo: Pre-print
Formato: 2373 bytes; 213769 bytes; text/plain; application/pdf

Português

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#Collective phenomena in economic and social systems: Interacting agent models#Non-equilibrium processes: Stochastic particle dynamics (Theory)#Physics and Society#Statistical Mechanics#Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases

18 pages, 7 figures, 1 appendix.-- Published in Journal of statistical mechanics (8): P08001 (2009).-- http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2009/08/P08001; We study the Deffuant et al. model for continuous-opinion dynamics under the influence of noise. In the original version of this model, individuals meet in random pairwise encounters after which they compromise or not depending of a confidence parameter. Free will is introduced in the form of noisy perturbations: individuals are given the opportunity to change their opinion, with a given probability, to a randomly selected opinion inside the whole opinion space. We derive the master equation of this process. One of the main effects of noise is to induce an order-disorder transition. In the disordered state the opinion distribution tends to be uniform, while for the ordered state a set of well defined opinion groups are formed, although with some opinion spread inside them. Using a linear stability analysis we can derive approximate conditions for the transition between opinion groups and the disordered state. The master equation analysis is compared with direct Monte-Carlo simulations. We find that the master equation and the Monte-Carlo simulations do not always agree due to finite-size induced fluctuations that we analyze in some detail.; We acknowledge the financial support of project FIS2007-60327 from MICINN (Spain) and FEDER (EU) and project FP6-2005-NEST-Path-043268 (EU).; Peer reviewed

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## A spatially explicit agent-based model of opinion and reputation dynamics

Fonte: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona
Publicador: Universidade Autônoma de Barcelona

Tipo: Conferência ou Objeto de Conferência
Formato: application/pdf

Publicado em //2014
Português

Relevância na Pesquisa

57.55734%

Key in spatial planning are opinion dynamics (the exchange of opinions between agents and the consecutive updates in opinions by individual agents). A number of possibly relevant factors that are commonly excluded in well-known models of opinion dynamics are peer pressure, localized opinion formation through isolation, and the reputation of the agents involved. We present a model of agents with a fixed spatial location (e.g., a household) in a “village” who are capable of only local interactions with their neighbours. There exist nonlinear feedbacks between updates in opinion and reputation, which are described by smooth mathematical functions. Sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the contributions of different factors to the convergence of opinions within the “village”.

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