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Development of a Bayesian Network to monitor the probability of nuclear proliferation

Holcombe, Robert (Robert Joseph)
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 112 p. (some folded)
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Nuclear Proliferation is a complex problem that has plagued national security strategists since the advent of the first nuclear weapons. As the cost to produce nuclear weapons has continued to decline and the availability of nuclear material has become more widespread, the threat of proliferation has increased. The spread of technology and the globalization of the information age has made the threat not only more likely, but also more difficult to detect. Proliferation experts do not agree on the universal factors which cause nations to want to proliferate or the methods to prevent countries from successfully developing nuclear weapons. Historical evidence also indicates that the current nuclear powers pursued their nuclear programs for different reasons and under different conditions. This disparity presents a problem to decision makers who are tasked with preventing further nuclear proliferation. Bayesian Inference is a tool of quantitative analysis that is rapidly gaining interest in numerous fields of scientific study that have previously been limited to purely statistical methods. The Bayesian approach removes the statistical limitations of large-n data sets and strictly numerical types of data. It allows researchers to include sparse and rich data as well as qualitative data based on the opinions of subject matter experts. Bayesian inference allows the inclusion of both the quantitative data and subjective judgments in the determination of predictions about a theory of interest. This means that contrary to classic statistical methods...

The self as a work of art: some practical suggestions for graduate students in political science at ANU (with special reference to the academic job market)

Shearmur, Jeremy
Fonte: Universidade Nacional da Austrália Publicador: Universidade Nacional da Austrália
Tipo: Working/Technical Paper Formato: 38060 bytes; application/pdf
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Graduate study in political science is fascinating. However, it is a means to an end. During the period at which you are at ANU, you have the opportunity to develop your understanding of political science. I would like to suggest that you might also view this as a period of self-creation: as a period in which you develop yourselves, in interaction with the material that you are studying and your colleagues. But do not forget that, in the end, what you are developing is also a commodity which has to be brought to market. You don't get tenure for being a student. Rather, you will need, at the end of the day, to offer yourself to employers, whether in the university sector or elsewhere. This paper sets out some suggestions as to how you might set about this task, with integrity. You may view this either as a process in which you are engaged in self-development, or as one in which you acquire the ability to play a variety of roles or to wear a variety of masks, so that - when it matters, and if you so wish - you will be able to do what is required of you. I should at once make two points. First, what follows is an overview of various suggestions as to things that graduate students might do, rather than a check-list of everything that they need to do. I cannot imagine anyone doing all that I am suggesting; and there is a risk that if they tried to do so...

U.S. export controls on encryption technology; US export controls on encryption technology

Hung, Shirley Kon-Jean
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 118 p.; 7654301 bytes; 7639628 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
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(cont.) effort that eventually paid off in 1999. Interest group politics also factors into the actions of the national security establishment as they also lobby the Presidency and Congress to maintain restrictive encryption regulations. The study uses organizational culture to explain the motivations and some of the actions of the NSA, particularly with regard to its preference for secrecy, its placement of national security above other values, and its efforts to maintain control over all cryptology, whether government or civilian.; This thesis seeks to explain why the U.S. government export controls on encryption technologies instituted during the 1970s remained in place until 1999 even though the widespread availability of similar products internationally had rendered the regulations largely without national security benefit by the late 1980s and early 1990s. The second part of the thesis explores the processes and reasons behind the eventual liberalization of encryption policies in 1999. Underlying the study is a values tradeoff between national security, economic interests, and civil liberties for which the relative gains and losses to each value shift through the three decades of the study as a result of technological advances in commercial and civilian cryptography...

Ethnic fractionalization and Sub-Saharan violence, 1970-1996.

Seale, Josiah (Josiah Q.)
Fonte: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Publicador: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Tipo: Tese de Doutorado Formato: 51 leaves; 2945508 bytes; 2946269 bytes; application/pdf; application/pdf
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This study examines the statistical correlations between metrics of ethnic fractionalization and categories of violence in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1970 to 1995. By examining these correlations both prior to and after controlling for income, the study is able to determine whether or not various types of conflict are linked to patterns of ethnic grouping. The study uses newer, more refined measures to evaluate the correlations between specific categories of violence and specific measures of ethnic fractionalization. Using simple and multivariate linear regressions, the study examines each of the correlations between a total of twenty-two sub-metrics of four categories of violence, per capita income and metrics of ethnic fractionalization on three tiers. This allows the study to gauge the impacts (both separately and in interaction) of dichotomous top-tier cleavages in deeply divided societies, general ethnic fractionalization and nested ethnic sub-grouping. The study finds that the majority of the categories of violence used are not correlated with ethnic fractionalization, neither prior to nor after controlling for income.; (cont.) However, successful coups are highly correlated with the presence and distribution of the dichotomous top-tier cleavages in deeply divided societies...

Political selection and the quality of government: evidence from South India

Besley, Timothy; Pande, Rohini; Rao, Vijayendra
Fonte: Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /07/2005 Português
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This paper uses household data from India to examine the economic and social status of village politicians, and how individual and village characteristics affect politician behavior while in office. Education increases the chances of selection to public o±ce and reduces the odds that a politician uses political power opportunistically. In contrast, land ownership and political connections enable selection but do not affect politician opportunism. At the village level, changes in the identity of the politically dominant group alters the group allocation of resources but not politician opportunism. Improved information °ows in the village, however, reduce opportunism and improve resource allocation.

Book Review: How nations innovate: the political economy of technological innovation in affluent capitalist economies by Jingjing Huo

Thatcher, Tom
Fonte: The London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: The London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 02/12/2015 Português
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In How Nations Innovate: The Political Economy of Technological Innovation in Affluent Capitalist Economies, Jingjing Huo assesses the capacity for innovation displayed by different types of capitalism. While the book neglects to explore some crucial aspects of innovation and remains light on real-world examples, Tom Thatcher praises the exemplary rigour of its methodological approach to political economy. How Nations Innovate: The Political Economy of Technological Innovation in Affluent Capitalist Economies. Jingjing Huo. Oxford University Press. 2015.

Book review: Political parties in Britain

Goes, Eunice
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 10/05/2013 Português
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"Political Parties in Britain." Matt Cole and Helen Deighan. Edinburgh University Press. July 2012. --- This introductory textbook examines the factors contributing to a political party’s fortune and identity. Authors Matt Cole and Helen Deighan examine Britain’s main political parties as well as ‘peripheral’ parties including the BNP and UKIP. Eunice Goes writes that Political Parties in Britain is a highly informative, accessible and up-to-date introductory text that should be included in all British politics reading lists.

Book review: Political corruption in Ireland 1922-2010: a crooked harp?

Brock, Jason
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 05/07/2013 Português
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"Political Corruption in Ireland 1922-2010: A Crooked Harp?" Elaine A. Byrne. Manchester University Press. March 2012. --- This book empirically maps the decline in standards since the inauguration of Irish independence in 1922, to the loss of Irish economic sovereignty in 2010, offering important perspectives on corruption theory. Elaine A. Byrne argues that the definition of corruption is an evolving one and that the Irish party system, political culture, and media have all influenced the character of Irish corruption. Bizarre case studies will be of use to historians and political scientists, writes Jason Brock.

Book review: political rhetoric: ‘a mildly dirty word’ because of its association with deception, or a linguistic tool with which to draw out the truth?

Crines, Andrew S.
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 20/07/2012 Português
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In Political Writing, Adam Garfinkle demonstrates how political rhetoric can be communicated through blogs, speeches, and reports, it provides a valuable assessment and guide on how a message can be conveyed in a convincing and insightful manner. Andrew S. Crines finds that it provides an insightful introduction to rhetorical theory, the character of political elites, and the intellectual heritage of rhetoric. Political Writing: A Guide to the Essentials. Adam Garfinkle. M.E. Sharpe. May 2012.

Book review: 21st century socialism in Latin America: triumphs and facades

Akram, Hassan
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 07/05/2012 Português
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After the financial crises put free market evangelism on the defence, the message of 21st socialism has found increasing resonance across Latin America and abroad. The Triumph of Politics gives a comparative and historical overview of the governments of Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales and Rafael Correa at a time of deep divisiveness and political conflict in the region. Hassan Akram finds the book to be timely and important read, although he argues some of the political science concepts did not always suit the cases presented. The Triumph of Politics: The Return of the Left in Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador. George Philip and Francisco Panizza. Wiley and Polity Books. September 2011.

The political economy of social violence: theory and evidence from a cross-country study

Fox, Sean; Hoelscher, Kristian
Fonte: Crisis States Research Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Crisis States Research Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /04/2010 Português
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Why are some countries more prone to social violence than others? Drawing on theoretical and empirical insights from the fields of political economy, sociology and criminology we develop and empirically test a holistic theory of social violence that accounts for political-institutional, socio-economic and socio-demographic factors. We find that hybrid political regimes, political-institutional volatility, poverty, inequality and ethnic diversity are associated with higher rates of social violence. Unexpectedly, higher rates of economic growth are also found to be robustly correlated with higher rates of social violence.

Political parties and trade unions in Cyprus

Katsourides, Yiannos
Fonte: Hellenic Observatory, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Hellenic Observatory, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /09/2013 Português
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The political parties in Cyprus are extremely powerful. They play a dominant role in the public as well as the private sphere, resulting in a civil society that is extremely weak. The article will address two issues. First, it will map the evolution of civil society organisations (CSOs), especially the trade unions, and their relationship with political parties. Trade unions are probably the most important and influential of the CSOs in Cyprus. Second, it will examine the relationship between political parties and trade unions in contemporary Cyprus, focusing on the changing context within which their interaction takes place, the strategies adopted by the two actors and the direction of influence between them. Research and analysis are based on interviews, surveys, party documents and other secondary literature.

Book review: Taking our country back: the crafting of networked politics from Howard Dean to Barack Obama

Brighton, Paul
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 25/02/2013 Português
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Through a detailed history of new media and political campaigning, Taking Our Country Back contributes to an interdisciplinary body of scholarship from communication, sociology, and political science. The book theorizes processes of innovation in online electoral politics and aims to give readers a new understanding of how the internet and its use by the Howard Dean campaign have fundamentally changed the field of political campaigning. Reviewed by Paul Brighton.

Private investment and political uncertainty

Stasavage, David
Fonte: Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /07/2000 Português
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Recent theoretical and empirical work has demonstrated a clear negative link between macroeconomic and political uncertainty and levels of private investment across countries. This result raises the question what institutions might help reduce this uncertainty, in particular by allowing host governments to limit their own possibilities to act opportunistically with respect to investors. Some have argued that governments might benefit from joining a multilateral investment agreement, but there remain doubts both about the enforceability and the desirability of such an accord. An alternative possibility, proposed in a seminal article by North and Weingast (1989), is that political institutions characterized by checks and balances can allow governments to credibly commit not to engage in ex post opportunism with respect to investors. In this paper I propose a modified version of this hypothesis and test it using new cross-country data on political institutions. I also use a quantile regression technique which allows the estimated effect of political institutions to vary across countries and over time.

Political lies need to be fact checked in a way that bridges different political truths, not silences them

Dovi, Suzanne
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 03/07/2014 Português
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In June, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List organization which had challenged the legality of an Ohio law that banned candidates from lying during political campaigns. Given the prevalence of lies in politics, does the practice need to be protected by law? Suzanne Dovi writes that given how effective lies can be, Americans may be tempted to turn to government to make their politicians more honest. She argues that this temptation should be resisted, as lies can be necessary, such as in matters of state security. Banning political lying, she says, would also prevent us from doing more to bridge the seemingly irreconcilable differences between those of different political opinions who often have deep disagreements over what is true.

A model of non-informational preference change

Dietrich, Franz; List, Christian
Fonte: Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 20/07/2009 Português
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According to standard rational choice theory, as commonly used in political science and economics, an agent's fundamental preferences are exogenously fixed, and any preference change over decision options is due to Bayesian information learning. Although elegant and parsimonious, such a model fails to account for preference change driven by experiences or psychological changes distinct from information learning. We develop a model of non-informational preference change. Alternatives are modelled as points in some multidimensional space, only some of whose dimensions play a role in shaping the agent's preferences. Any change in these 'motivationally salient' dimensions can change the agent's preferences. How it does so is described by a new representation theorem. Our model not only captures a wide range of frequently observed phenomena, but also generalizes some standard representations of preferences in political science and economics.

Book review: Growing into politics: contexts and timing of political socialisation, edited by Simone Abendschӧn

Hensby, Alex
Fonte: London School of Economics and Political Science Publicador: London School of Economics and Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 24/03/2014 Português
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"Growing into Politics: Contexts and Timing of Political Socialisation." Simone Abendschӧn (ed.). ECPR Press. October 2013. --- This book presents up-to-date empirical research on crucial questions of political socialisation. The volume maintains that political socialisation is no universal or independent phenomenon, but one significantly shaped by the surrounding parameters of the society in which it is embedded. Simone Abendschӧn has assembled a strong collection that should ideally encourage aspiring PhD candidates in politics, sociology and education to open up the study of political socialisation further by incorporating new contexts, debates and methodologies, writes Alex Hensby.

Book review: from deliberation to demonstration: political rallies in France, 1869-1939 by Paula Cossart

Sèbe, Berny
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 01/04/2014 Português
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This book considers the transformation of political rallies in France from the last years of the Second Empire until the end of the Third Republic. Originally designed by Republicans as a tool of citizenship learning and formation of political opinion through open debate, rallies gradually became a stage dedicated to the show of force, at the initiative of various emerging political formations. From Deliberation to Demonstration offers a much-needed appraisal of an often forgotten, but crucial aspect of political sociability in France, which anyone with a good background knowledge of nineteenth-century French history will enjoy reading, writes Berny Sèbe.

Book review: India: political ideas and the making of a democratic discourse by Gurpreet Mahajan

Kaur, Jastinder
Fonte: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science Publicador: Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Tipo: Website; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em 23/04/2014 Português
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Gurpreet Mahajan tackles the predisposition of political theory to be limited by the Western canon, offering insights into the social and political life of contemporary India, and how it differs from the dominant liberal paradigm. Jastinder Kaur finds that this is a worthy contribution to Zed Books’ World Political Theories series, which itself is arguably a long overdue challenge to the conceit that political theory and praxis must necessarily conform to Western cultural ideas and ideals, without due regard for non-Western contexts and realities. Mahajan has done well to introduce to non-Indian audiences the concept of democracy as a three-legged stool in India that requires the continual negotiation and inter-dependence of state, society, and individual.

Left, right, left: income dynamics and the evolving political preferences of forward-looking Bayesian voters

Carter, Michael; Morrow, John
Fonte: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines Publicador: The London School of Economics and Political Science, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines
Tipo: Monograph; NonPeerReviewed Formato: application/pdf
Publicado em /01/2012 Português
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The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. While the implications of upward mobility for the political preferences of forward-looking voters have been studied, neither the upward mobility model nor conventional myopic median voter models are well equipped to explain Latin America’s political transformation. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to consider a broad range of dynamic processes. When voters have full information on the nature of income dynamics in a transition economy, we show that strong support for redistributive policies will materialize rapidly if income dynamics offer few prospects of upward mobility for key sections of the electorate. In contrast, when voters have imperfect information, our model predicts a slow and politically polarizing shift toward redistributive voter preferences under these same non-concave income dynamics. Simulation using fitted income dynamics for two Latin American economies suggests that the imperfect information model better accounts for the observed shift back to the left in Latin America, and that this generalized, forward-looking voter approach may offer additional insights about political dynamics in other transition economies.